The Streaming War
We all know that Spotify is by far the most successful audio
streaming platform in the world. In fact, even during the pandemic itself, the
stock price of Spotify went up by 70%. Now, on the outside, if you look at the
numbers while Apple Music has only 72 million users Spotify has more than 345
million users and the rest of the competition is not even close. On top of
that, its recommendation and playlist have been so amazing that you'll agree
that it has given you an incredible experience every single time.
But you know
what? Fortunately, or
unfortunately, in 2021, Spotify is in deep-deep trouble. While on one side the
losses of the company have been stacking up rapidly On the other side with the
giants entering the streaming market Spotify is officially in a business war.
And what we are witnessing right now is perhaps one of the most interesting
Internet business wars in history. And if you pay very close attention, you'll
be able to learn some incredible business lessons.
The question is- What is
this business war, what are the
business lessons that you can learn from this iconic case study.
People, the
music streaming revolution of the world started way back in the 1990s. Now,
back then from 1984 to 1999 CDs were the ultimate instrument of the music
industry. The distribution channels of the music CDs made the record labels and
musicians billions of dollars every single year. But in the 1990s the Internet
and the computer revolution began to pick up resulting in massive penetration
of both, computers and the web, into the American household.
The First Wave Of Music Streaming
Now, if you see
this is a fine culmination of technology and connectivity, and if you observe
closely every time this golden combination happens, it gives rise to a new
generation of startups. In the music industry, it was the company called
Napster which was started way back in 1999 by Shawn Fanning and Sean Parker. In
simple words, Napster was nothing but a music torrent instead of buying a CD
for 20 dollars you can download an MP3 file for free and share it with your
friends. This invention was a disruption in the making
because what followed next was the first wave of music streaming. And this wave
did not just change the way people listen to music it literally changed the
entire music industry. Within a few months.
Napster had 4 million song downloads and
in less than a year, It had 20 million users. Now, initially, people
thought that it's no big deal. But in some time, the numbers of Napster
exploded further, to 60 million users by 2001. And this is when the record
labels began to realize that their stores are incurring losses and when they
actually computed it shocked them to see that they were incurring more than
$100 million in losses due to Napster. And that's when hell broke loose for
Napster, they got slapped with a lot of lawsuits, and what followed next was the
historic suit that led Napster to pay millions of dollars to artists, creators, and record label companies eventually they had to shut down their operation in some time.
Now, while most people thought that piracy will be gone and that CDs
will be back, as it turns out, Napster left the market but the behavioral
design of the society had been so strongly altered that people just didn't go
back to CDs at all, The CD stores were still closing down and other piracy
websites took the place of Napster. Companies were still incurring millions of
dollars of losses because people just wouldn't pay $20 for an album.
The Second Wave Of Music Streaming This was the time where record labels were disparately looking out for an alternative to
actually get their distribution channel back on track because they have come to big losses. And while all of this
drama was going on, there was one man who noticed this and decided to become an
opportunist during times of chaos, And this man was none other than the
legendary Steve Jobs himself and the solution that he brought to the table was
to give people ultra-cheap music and to give record labels a non-pirate able
distribution channel for their music. And this solution was none other than the
iconic iPod and the rest is history. The record labels again started to make
billions of dollars customers fell in love with the iPod as it brought along with the
second wave of the music streaming revolution.
But but but (3X)There were two major problems over here Number
one, not everyone owned an iPod or a MacBook, and number two, not everyone could
pay for each album. But everyone had computers and the Internet. So, guess what?
This culmination of technology and connectivity, again, gave rise to another
generation of startups and the most successful player in this segment turned
out to be none other than Spotify which started way back in 2006.
The Third Wave Of Music Streaming: Spotify learned
from the pains of the customers and decided to build a music streaming platform
that could be used by everyone and could be used by everyone for free and this
is where Spotify deploys its freemium model with an option to subscribe but
this time it wasn't easy because they knew what happened to Napster, and the
subscription model was way more complex than the discreet model of iTunes.
Because when it comes to CDs or iTunes, it was pretty straightforward you buy a
$1 album from iTunes80% of that goes to record labels and 20% of that is
mediator fees and that's it. Whereas in the case of subscription, it's quite
difficult because you are giving unlimited access to everyone for a defined fee.
So, the revenue distribution itself becomes very very complex. But fortunately,
the Spotify guys got through it and they spent about $9.8 billion between 2006 to 2018just to get the music rights without legal issues and they
built the freemium model to make music accessible to everyone. And what
followed next was the third wave of music streaming that is, unlimited legal
music that could be listened to for free. As a result of which, again, Spotify exploded
and today it is a market leader with the highest number of paid subscribers.
But again, there were 3 problems.
Number one,
Ad revenue was not enough to pay
the artists well and because the music is free, very few people actually opted
in for a subscription.
Number two,
There was no profit for Spotify, in fact, the
company suffered massive losses during its rise.
And last and most importantly
Things got really ugly with the artists, Taylor Swift and Adele broke up with
Spotify over low pay. And again, it led to a series of troubles for them from
the creators' side.
Now, the company was badly cornered. With massive losses on
one side annoyed artists on the other and on top of that, they've now got
freebie-loving customers. And this gave them no option but to run a lot of ads
to push their customers to buy Spotify Premium and hence a lot of interruptions.
The Emerging Tech Giants: And this is when ladies and gentlemen, two more giants decided to step into the game.
In 2015, Apple introduced that it's going to kill iTunes and launch the
subscription model which was Apple Music as direct competition to Spotify. And
in just 5 months, in November 2015, YouTube entered the streaming wars with
YouTube Music. Now, if you observe this streaming war very closely guys, you'll
see that both these services, that is, Apple Music and YouTube Music are built
over the weaknesses of Spotify. And with just a few moves here and there
Spotify could be killed and there could be another wave of social media
revolution on YouTube.
Apple Music deploys a premium model and it's only for Apple users
while Spotify and YouTube Music are for everyone and they use the freemium model
which gives them a wider audience. Now, if you look at the user base, Apple has
1.65 billion users Spotify has 345 million users and YouTube, well it’s got 2.1
billion users. But when it comes to paid subscriptions Spotify is way ahead of
Apple because of its accessibility through both Android and Apple. While Apple
Music has only 72 million users but all of them are paid Spotify has 345
million users out of which 155 million of them pay. Now, the X factor for
Spotify over here is its amazing playlists and podcasts that are integrated into
the app, and this is where we saw Spotify coming out with Spotify Originals
like 22 Yarns and signing up creators like Joe Rogan to become Spotify exclusive.
But Apple and YouTube both also have their podcast but separately. YouTube has
Google Podcasts and Apple has Apple Podcasts. And now, guys here come the big difference.
While Apple Music generates revenue of $4.1 billion with very less profits
because it's just an ecosystem product Spotify being a standalone incurred a
loss of $698 million despite generating a revenue of $9.2 billion. And
YouTube? Well, it's way ahead of the game with $19.7 billion in revenue
and this is mainly because of its video service.
YouTube Music The fourth Wave Of Music Streaming? Fun fact: YouTube is one of the most popular platforms to discover musicians and artists. if you
take a step back (I don't know if you see this) but YouTube can literally accommodate
every single X factor of Spotify and Apple music in the YouTube app itself.
Number one,
You are kind of already searching for songs through lyrics from Google and
YouTube which is the USP of Apple Music.
Number two,
You can ask Google which
song is playing and it will find that out for you which is nothing but a Shazam
feature.
And most importantly
Google has Google Podcasts and a huge base of
creators who are already making podcasts on YouTube. Now, every single creator
knows that YouTube is by far the best
platform for creating content. And users know very well how well YouTube
understands them and their preferences. Now, if YouTube rolls out an update
tomorrow saying that Google Podcasts is now integrated into YouTube as YouTube podcasts.
Do you realize what's going to happen? It is going to lead to another huge wave
of creators who will flock to upload their audio content on YouTube because
there are already a ton of audio creators who are desperately wanting to be on YouTube.
And if given a chance with the YouTube algorithm, it's going to be a game-changer
for them. And the best part is because it's available on both Android and iOS,
the user base is insanely huge. So,
basically, YouTube literally has the best of both Spotify and Apple. And when
integrated together, it will become unbeatable in the content space, just like
Instagram is right now for social media networks. And my sense is, one day
there will be a grand announcement that's going to change everything for Spotify.
This is what, ladies and gentlemen are happening in the streaming wars.
Now
let's move on to the most important part and that, what are the
lessons that we can learn from this iconic case study.
Lesson number one.
People, always remember that
being the first mover can sometimes be a terrible thing and as far as my observation goes it's almost every time a terrible thing. And it's always
better to be a second-mover so that you can build upon the mistakes made by the
first-mover. In this case, if you see, iTunes built over Napster, Spotify built
over iTunes, and Apple Music and YouTube music built over Spotify. So, if you're
the first mover, you've got to be very careful and if you're the second mover
you’ve got to be very happy, at the same time, very sharp about the mistakes
that have been made by the first mover.
Lesson number two
companies might come
and go but the behavioral design they leave behind will stay forever. In this
case, it was the paradigm shift from CDs to streaming. So, while most people
will neglect it and try to reverse it you as an entrepreneur can be an
opportunist and can bring about a forward-looking solution rather than a backward-looking.
In this case, the opportunist was none other than the legendary
Steve Jobs himself who built upon the behavioral design left behind by Napster.
And most importantly, always remember guys the culmination of technology and
connectivity is always the sweet spot for innovation and it will give rise to
the most revolutionary startups. In this case, it was the computers and the
Internet but in the next 3 years, it's going to be the green tech and the
Internet, blockchain and the Internet, and most importantly Artificial
intelligence and the Internet. And this is where you can find your greatness to
build an incredible company or as an investor find an uprising gem in the
stock market.